Page 51 - 《环境工程技术学报》2023年第1期

Vol.13，No.1 环 境 工 程 技 术 学 报 第 13 卷，第 1 期
Jan.，2023 Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology 2023 年 1 月

陈昊，卢士强，邵一平，等.基于敏感目标被访问概率法的长江口水域溢油风险区划研 究 [J].环境工程技术学报，2023，13（1）：47-53.
CHEN H,LU S Q,SHAO Y P,et al.Study on oil spill risk zoning in the Yangtze River Estuary based on the visited probability method of sensitive
targets[J].Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology，2023，13（1）：47-53.

基于敏感目标被访问概率法的长江口水域

溢油风险区划研究

陈昊 1,2,3 ，卢士强 1,2,3 ，邵一平 1,2,3 ，王彪 1,2,3 ，刘扬 1,3
1.上海市环境科学研究院
2.长江生态环境保护修复联合研究上海驻点工作组
3.上海水环境模拟与水生态修复工程技术研究中心
摘要 以上海市长江口主要环境敏感目标为研究对象，利 用 Oilma 被访问概率模型计算青草沙集中式饮用水水源地、东滩湿
p
地国家级自然保护区、城市岸线旅游区域、渔业捕捞区等长江口主要生态环境敏感目标的溢油风险概率，构建了基于溢油发生
概率、影响因子、气象水文条件、敏感目标敏感系数的溢油风险指数体系，形成了长江口溢油风险二级分区区划。根据溢油风
险指数，划定上海长江口水域溢油高风险区、较高风险区、中风险区、低风险 区 4 个级别，各风险级别面积分别 为 335、2 375、
2
5 69 和 3 068 km 。针对长江口水源地溢油风险防控区 等 4 类重点防控区，提出分区分级分类防控要求建议，明确不同分区首
5
要防护目标，并按分级管控要求提出不同区域预警防控等级。
关键词 长江口；被访问概率；溢油；风险区划；风险管控
中图分类号：X55 文章编号：1674-991X（2023）01-0047-07 doi：10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210648

Study on oil spill risk zoning in the Yangtze River Estuary based on the visited

probability method of sensitive targets

CHEN Hao 1,2,3 , LU Shiqiang 1,2,3 , SHAO Yiping 1,2,3 , WANG Biao 1,2,3 , LIU Yang 1,3
1.Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences
2.Shanghai Resident Working Group of the Joint Research on the Protection and Restoration of the
Ecological Environment of the Yangtze River
3.Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Water Environment Simulation and Ecological Restoration
Abstract Taking the main environmental sensitive targets in the Yangtze River Estuary in Shanghai as the
research object, the Oilmap visited probability model was used to calculate the oil spill risk probability of the main
eco-environmental sensitive targets in the Yangtze River Estuary, such as Qingcaosha centralized drinking water
source, Dongtan Wetland National Nature Reserve, urban coastline tourism area and fishery fishing area. The oil
spill risk index system was established based on the probability of oil spill occurrence, impact factors,
meteorological and hydrological conditions and the sensitivity coefficients of sensitive target, to form a secondary
zoning of oil spill risk in the Yangtze Estuary. According to the calculation results of oil spill risk index, the oil spill
risk zoning of the Yangtze River Estuary in Shanghai was divided into four levels: >5 (highest risk area), 3-5 (higher
risk area), 1-3 (medium risk area) and <1 (low risk area). The area of each risk level was 335, 2 375, 5 695 and 3 068
2
km , respectively. For four key prevention and control areas, such as the oil spill risk prevention and control area in
the water source area of the Yangtze River Estuary, some suggestions on zoning and classification requirements for
prevention and control were put forward, the primary protection objectives of different zones were defined, and
early warning, prevention and control levels in different regions were put forward according to the hierarchical
control requirements, so as to provide basic decision-making basis for oil spill risk prevention and control
management in the Yangtze River Estuary.

收稿日期：2021-11-10
基金项目：长江生态环境保护修复联合研究（第一期）驻点跟踪研究项目（2019-LHYJ-01-0215-01）；上海市中央引导地方科技发展专项基金项目
（YDZX20193100004649）
作者简介：陈昊（1988—），男，工程师，硕士，主要从事水环境管理研究，chenh@saes.sh.cn