Page 22 - 《环境工程技术学报》2022年第5期

Vol.12，No.5 环 境 工 程 技 术 学 报 第 12 卷，第 5 期
Sep.，2022 Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology 2022 年 9 月

许自舟，李亚芳，程嘉熠，等.天津市近岸海域水质变化趋势分析及水质目标研 究 [J].环境工程技术学报，2022，12（5）：1378-1388.
XU Z Z,LI Y F,CHENG J Y,et al.Trends analysis and targets study of the water quality in Tianjin coastal waters[J].Journal of Environmental Engineering
Technology，2022，12（5）：1378-1388.

天津市近岸海域水质变化趋势分析及水质目标研究

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许自舟 ，李亚芳 ，程嘉熠 ，吉志新 ，张晓霞 ，林建国 1*
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1.大连海事大学环境科学与工程学院
2.国家海洋环境监测中心
3.中国环境科学研究院
摘要 掌握海域水质变化趋势、制定科学合理的水质目标，有助于精准实施重点海域排污总量控制，制定有效的污染物管控政
策。利用广义加性模型（GAM），基 于 2007—201 年天津市近岸海域营养盐浓度及降水量数据，建立水质变化趋势分析模型和
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水质目标确定方法，在评估天津市近岸海 域 1 个监测站位无机氮和活性磷酸盐浓度变化趋势的基础上，提出天津市近岸海域水
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质控制目标，并分析水质目标的合理性和可达性。结果表明：2013—201 年 与 2007—201 年相比，天津市近岸海域无机氮浓度
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总体呈下降趋势，下降比例 为 13.19%，95 % 的置信区间为−30.37%～3.96%；活性磷酸盐浓度总体呈上升趋势，上升比例为
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7.01%，95 % 的置信区间为−11.43%～25.45%，尚未恢复 到 2007—201 年的平均水平；提 出 202 年天津市近岸海域无机氮、活
性磷酸盐二者综合优良水质比例达 到 75 % 的控制目标；将天津市近岸海域划分 成 7 个区域，建议据此实施海域水质分区管理，
进一步加强农业面源污染防治，强化流域上下游协同治理和省际水污染联防联治，持续改善天津市近岸海域水质。
关键词 水质目标；广义加性模型；趋势分析；营养盐；天津市近岸海域
中图分类号：X55 文章编号：1674-991X（2022）05-1378-11 doi：10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210302

Trends analysis and targets study of the water quality in Tianjin coastal waters

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XU Zizhou , LI Yafang , CHENG Jiayi , JI Zhixin , ZHANG Xiaoxia , LIN Jianguo 1*
1.College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Dalian Maritime University
2.National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center
3.Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences
Abstract Mastering the seawater quality variation trends and formulating scientific and reasonable water quality
targets are helpful to the accurate implementation of the total amount control of pollutant discharge in key sea areas
and formulate effective pollutant control policies. The water quality variation trends analysis model and the water
quality target determination method were established by using the Generalized Additive Models (GAM), based on
the nutrient concentration and precipitation data of Tianjin coastal waters for the 2007-2018 periods. The water
quality targets of Tianjin coastal waters were put forward on the basis of evaluating the variation trend of inorganic
nitrogen and reactive phosphate concentrations at 12 stations in Tianjin coastal waters, and the rationality and
accessibility of the water quality targets were analyzed. The results showed that the concentration of inorganic
nitrogen in the coastal waters of Tianjin generally showed a downward trend, with a decreasing ratio of 13.19% and
a 95% confidence interval ranging from −30.37% to 3.96% in 2013-2018, compared with 2007-2012. The
concentration of reactive phosphorus generally showed an upward trend, with an upward ratio of 7.01% and a 95%
confidence interval ranging from −11.43% to 25.45%, which had not recovered to the average level from 2007 to
2012. It was proposed that the proportion of Grade Ⅰ-Ⅱ water quality of inorganic nitrogen and reactive
phosphorus in Tianjin coastal waters would reach 75% in 2025. It was suggested to implement water quality zoning
management, and the Tianjin coastal waters were divided into seven zones. Other measures such as further
strengthening the prevention and control of agricultural non-point sources pollution, enhancing the upstream and

收稿日期：2021-07-05
基金项目：国家重点研发计划项目（2019YFC1407700, 2018YFC1407603）；天津市科技兴海项目（KJXH2013-17）
作者简介：许自 舟 (1977—)，男，博士，主要研究方向为环境规划与管理，zzxu@nmemc.org.cn
* 责任作者：林建国（1960—），男，教授，主要研究方向为海洋环境污染与修复，ljglin@dlmu.edu.cn